Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.016132 0.018270 0.020604 0.023344 0.026477 0.029951 0.034102
2024-10-27 0.012200 0.014964 0.018247 0.022445 0.027691 0.034053 0.042389
2024-11-03 0.010750 0.013911 0.017885 0.023273 0.030429 0.039662 0.052569
2024-11-10 0.009661 0.013058 0.017531 0.023894 0.032782 0.044858 0.062681
2024-11-17 0.008810 0.012362 0.017230 0.024447 0.034983 0.049960 0.073153
2024-11-24 0.007869 0.011406 0.016425 0.024141 0.035848 0.053171 0.081163
2024-12-01 0.007117 0.010624 0.015757 0.023917 0.036742 0.056430 0.089523
2024-12-08 0.006491 0.009954 0.015172 0.023724 0.037614 0.059677 0.098156
2024-12-15 0.006135 0.009654 0.015107 0.024312 0.039744 0.065089 0.110914
2024-12-22 0.005646 0.009094 0.014573 0.024071 0.040463 0.068213 0.120073
2024-12-29 0.005421 0.008936 0.014663 0.024860 0.042977 0.074603 0.135715
2025-01-05 0.004922 0.008277 0.013863 0.024042 0.042589 0.075840 0.142000
2025-01-12 0.004544 0.007801 0.013344 0.023690 0.043039 0.078706 0.151876
2025-01-19 0.004120 0.007208 0.012575 0.022818 0.042448 0.079589 0.158009
2025-01-26 0.003999 0.007143 0.012730 0.023657 0.045163 0.087028 0.178268
2025-02-02 0.003857 0.007026 0.012778 0.024289 0.047531 0.094027 0.198493
2025-02-09 0.003717 0.006898 0.012791 0.024852 0.049808 0.101073 0.219713
2025-02-16 0.003478 0.006563 0.012385 0.024540 0.050254 0.104352 0.232955
2025-02-23 0.003270 0.006272 0.012038 0.024312 0.050846 0.107990 0.247464
2025-03-02 0.003083 0.006007 0.011721 0.024116 0.051481 0.111778 0.262802
2025-03-09 0.002995 0.005932 0.011778 0.024714 0.053917 0.119843 0.289572
2025-03-16 0.002827 0.005683 0.011459 0.024468 0.054429 0.123546 0.305947
2025-03-23 0.002772 0.005662 0.011610 0.025271 0.057427 0.133404 0.339459